How Is India's External Debt Impacting Its Economy?
External Debt of India: India's external debt represents the total financial obligations the country holds to foreign creditors, which can include banks, foreign governments, and international financial bodies such as the IMF and World Bank. Debtors could be the central government, state bodies, businesses, or private individuals. Grasping the intricate nature of India's external debt is vital for assessing its economic stature and direction.
Data Publication: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and the Ministry of Finance publish India's external debt data quarterly, structured with a one-quarter lag. The RBI manages the data for the year's first two quarters, while the Finance Ministry oversees the latter. Annually, a comprehensive report detailing the external debt statistics and their implications is released by the Indian government.
Debt Statistics as of 2022: By March 2022, India's external debt recorded at $620.7 billion, marking a $47.1 billion rise from the previous year’s figure of $573.7 billion. In contrast, the debt-to-GDP ratio declined from 21.2% in 2021 to 19.9% in 2022, signaling an improved economic landscape.
Foreign Currency Reserves: As of August 2022, India’s foreign currency reserves stood at $573 billion, a decrease from $619 billion observed in March 2022. This backward trend contrasts with the end-March 2021 figure of $579 billion and earlier $474 billion in March 2020. Notably, the reserves-to-debt ratio was 100.3% in March 2022, slightly down from 101.1% in March 2021.
Historical Debt Overview:
Debt Trends (1991-2021): Following is a trajectory of India’s external borrowings:
- 1991: With an external debt of $83.8 billion, the debt-to-GDP ratio was 28.3%, whereas the debt service ratio reached 35.3%. Reserves to debt ratio was low at 7.0%.
- 1996: Debt grew to $93.7 billion, while the debt service ration enhanced to 26.2%, and the reserves-to-debt ratio rose to 23.1%.
- 2001: External debt reached $101.3 billion. Remarkably, debt service ratio reduced to 16.6%, and reserves-to-debt ratio surged to 41.7%.
- 2010: Debt shot up to $260.9 billion alongside a debt-to-GDP ratio of 18.5%. The reserves-to-debt ratio elevated impressively to 106.9%.
- 2021: With external debt hitting $573.7 billion, the debt-to-GDP ratio was at 21.2%, and reserves-to-debt ratio stood strong at 100.6%.
Composition of Long-Term Debt: Long-term foreign borrowings divide into key categories:
- Multilateral Debt: Loans from institutions like ADB, IDA, and IBRD totaled $69.7 billion by March 2021, with IDA, ADB, and IBRD as main partners.
- Bilateral Debt: These government-to-government loans were $31.0 billion in March 2021, up from $28.1 billion in March 2020.
- Commercial Borrowings: Comprising loans from foreign banks, it is the largest debt sector at $213.2 billion in March 2021.
- NRI Deposits: Non-Resident Indian deposits constituted $141.9 billion in March 2021.
- Export Credit: Loans aiding export amounted to $6.5 billion as of March 2021.
- Rupee Debt: The smallest segment, registering $1.0 billion as of March 2021.
Short-Term Debt: Also part of India's debt landscape, this category, with a maturity under a year, was $101.1 billion as of March 2021, mainly consisting of trade-related credits.
Impact and Management Strategies:
- Economic Impacts: Sound debt management is crucial for averting financial adversities and sustaining economic stability. Too much debt can increase sensitivity to global financial fluctuations. Nevertheless, adequate management and substantial reserves help India counteract potential risks.
- Debt Service Ratio: At a manageable 8.2% in March 2021, a lower ratio suggests a stronger capability to use export revenues to manage debt.
- Foreign Exchange Reserves: Strong reserves bolster investor confidence and can favorably influence India’s borrowing terms.
- Policy Measures: Strategies include bolstering foreign direct investment, balancing payments, and diversifying external finance. Periodic reviews help tailor strategies to evolving economic conditions.
Conclusion: India's external debt scenario, although significant, is effectively managed through strategic policies, robust reserves, and diversified debt sources. The balance between debt servicing and economic expansion is maintained through strategic management, thus solidifying India’s economic foundation for continuous growth and stability.